Well, after a long period of being unable to play or test Oblivion, I have had a 3rd hard drive failure. Since then, I've been stuck on Arch Linux x86_64, which is installed on my backup hard drive. Today, I had an opportunity to try out Oblivion on Wine 1.1.31. The results? Disappointing. I've been completely unable to get Oblivion to run past the opening movie shown when you start a new game. Soon as it tries to do anything 3D, it crashes. Right now, I'm assuming it is because I'm running Wine on a 64bit system.
So, at this point, I have to get a replacement for my 3rd failed hard drive. The last one they sent me was a refurbished drive. That means that it is one that had already failed and was fixed. So, in all likelihood, they sent me back a refurbished drive for the other replacement. This would explain my bad luck with hard drives.